Analysis on the key direction of coal overcapacity reduction: achieving a dynamic balance between supply and demand

    In recent years, my country's coal industry has been accelerating the pace of reducing production capacity. The elimination of outdated production capacity has achieved remarkable results, the industry has gradually recovered, and corporate profit margins have continued to increase.2018In 2018, the direction of coal production capacity reduction has also changed from total production capacity reduction to structural production capacity reduction, taking the disposal of "zombie enterprises" as an important starting point, actively releasing high-quality production capacity, forcing the exit of ineffective and low-quality production capacity to speed up the withdrawal, and further improving the advanced coal industry. The proportion of production capacity.At the same time, coordinate the relationship between reducing production capacity and maintaining supply, and strive to make further breakthroughs in improving capacity utilization, so as to realize the transformation and upgrading of the entire industry and improve quality and efficiency.

    3The government work report released on the month 5of May proposed to actively and steadily resolve the excess capacity of coal power and unswervingly dispose of "zombie enterprises".2018Strive to resolve the coal overcapacity of 1.5about 100 million tons every year; eliminate and shut down 30the coal-fired power units below 10,000 kilowatts that do not meet the standard.The General Research Institute of Coal Science recently released the report "The Coal Industry Continues to Deepen Supply-side Structural Reform", stating that the effect of coal overcapacity reduction has gradually emerged, and the industry has been optimized and upgraded.It is expected that the overcapacity reduction task of more than 10,000 tons is 2018expected to be completed ahead of schedule 1000, but it is more difficult to further promote the overcapacity reduction.

Actively release advanced production capacity to  keep prices basically stable

    2018Since the beginning of the year, the supply-side structural reform has been slightly adjusted, from "total production capacity reduction" to "structural production capacity reduction, systematic optimization of production capacity", effectively promoting the price of coal and other products to remain within a reasonable range.At the same time, according to the principle of reduction and replacement, the high-quality coal production capacity will be developed in an orderly manner, and the ineffective and low-quality production capacity will be forced to exit faster, and the proportion of advanced coal production capacity will be further increased.Data show that in the first half of the year, the number of coal mines in the country decreased from the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan 1.2to 7000around 10,000 places .Coal mines with an annual output 30of less than 10,000 tons will withdraw in an orderly manner, and actively release advanced coal production capacity.The planning and construction sequence of coal power has been continuously optimized, the increase in production capacity has been strictly controlled, and the elimination of outdated production capacity of coal power has been accelerated.

    Since the beginning of this year, the structural adjustment of overcapacity has been more rationalized, which not only improves the quality of coal supply, but also gradually concentrates production in the main producing provinces.The coal production capacity in the southern region was appropriately increased, and the high-quality production capacity in the northern region was gradually brought into play.Wu Lixin, deputy director of the Coal Strategic Planning Research Institute of the General Research Institute of Coal Science, said that from the trend, the proportion of coal production in the southern region will continue to decline.Among them, Hubei, Jiangxi, Chongqing and other provinces and cities may gradually withdraw from coal production.To a certain extent, this shows that the concentration of my country's coal industry is concentrated in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia, which have good resource conditions, low mining costs, and high security.Data show that in 2010, 2017in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Mongolia and other regions accounted for 14the output of large coal bases 94.3% of the country's total , an increase 0.6of a percentage point year-on-year.There are many large-scale modern coal mines with an annual output 120of 10,000 tons or 1200more, accounting for more than 75% of the national output .

    In the second half of the year, in order to ensure the stability of coal supply, the pace of de-capacity of coal mines in production may slow down, and it is expected that strict safety and environmental inspections will continue.At the same time, it will coordinate key coal-producing regions and coal enterprises to increase the utilization rate of production capacity under the premise of ensuring safety, strive to increase production, and shift from "exit" to "advance and retreat".Through the orderly increase of advanced production capacity, the exit of backward production capacity can be realized as soon as possible, which not only optimizes the allocation of stock resources, but also expands high-quality incremental supply, achieves a dynamic balance between supply and demand, and strives to ensure stable supply and stable prices.

Forced "zombie enterprises" to withdraw in an orderly manner to prevent the resurgence of excess capacity

    At 3the 6the press conference of the first session of the 13th National People's Congress held on the 13th, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that 2018bankruptcy, liquidation and reorganization of "zombie enterprises" should be increased in 2019, and enterprises that have no hope of turning losses should be guided. Actively exit.At present, the energy industry is deeply promoting coal production capacity reduction, and it must seize the "bull nose" of "zombie enterprises".

    With the in-depth progress of resolving and eliminating excess production capacity and disposing of "zombie" enterprises, ineffective and low-end supply has been effectively reduced, the supply structure has been significantly improved, and the capacity utilization rate has rebounded.In the first half of this year, the utilization rate of industrial capacity was 76.7% , an increase of 0.3one percentage point over the same period of the previous year.However, in the process of disposal, various places also face some problems, such as the pressure of personnel placement, the difficulty in raising funds, and the big differences in the definition of "zombie enterprises".

    Xu Liang, vice chairman and secretary general of China Coal Construction Association, said that as "zombie enterprises" are the focus of coal production capacity reduction in the next three years of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", we must insist on improving the quality of the supply system as the main direction of attack. "One enterprise, one policy" formulate a work plan to speed up the implementation of closing and clearing, overall exit, reorganization, integration, and classified disposal.In the future, we will reduce the use of administrative orders to reduce production capacity, and adhere to market-based and legal methods to reduce production capacity.

    In the second half of this year, laws, regulations and standards on environmental protection, quality, technology, energy consumption, water consumption, safety and other related laws, regulations and standards will be more strictly enforced on the disposal of "zombie enterprises".At the same time, banking financial institutions have resolutely reduced and withdrawn related loans, and will not renew the safety production license after it expires.Secondly, encourage and guide relevant enterprises to comprehensively consider the project construction conditions and market prospects, take the initiative to stop construction and delay the construction of coal mine projects with poor resource conditions and weak market competitiveness, and promote the overall exit of "zombie enterprises".

Increase production capacity replacement efforts to  maintain total dynamic balance

    At present, it is in the peak period of summer coal consumption, but coal prices have basically remained within a reasonable range, and thermal coal prices have even fallen.The latest issue of China's coastal thermal coal purchase price index released by the China Electricity Council shows that the price of 5500kcal and 5000kcal coal has dropped by RMB 1 and RMB ton respectively compared with 30the /previous 29issue /.Industry insiders believe that the coal price did not rise sharply during the peak season of coal consumption, and the accelerated release of high-quality production capacity has contributed to it.

    Data show that since the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have approved 12a coal mine project involving a total production capacity of 490010,000 tons.Most of these coal mines are located in Xinjiang, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other provinces that are rich in high-quality coal resources.In this year's list of coal mines for safety production standardization announced by the Ministry of Emergency Management and the State Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau, it can be found that the coal mines in high-quality coal-producing areas have greatly increased the rate on the list.

    In the first half of the year, Hebei, Hunan, Fujian, Heilongjiang and other places successively organized the replacement of coal production capacity indicators. Among them, Hebei completed the 1208replacement of 10,000 tons of coal production capacity indicators, Hunan involved 10,000 tons of coal production capacity 118.3indicators, and Heilongjiang Province is also organizing coal production capacity replacement.With the support of a series of production capacity release measures, my country's coal production has risen significantly.The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first half of the year, the country's cumulative raw coal output was about 17100 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%.。

    In the second half of the year, the state will actively promote the coal mine capacity withdrawal standards in the southern regions to gradually connect with those in the northern regions, and guide the withdrawal of coal mines below 3010,000 tons per /year (excluding 3010,000 tons per /year) in an orderly manner.At the same time, the time for the closure and exit of the production capacity replacement coal mine has also been clarified.The withdrawal of coal mines in the construction of coal mine capacity replacement plan (including nuclear reduction of production capacity) must be reduced in place at the latest before the completed coal mine is put into production.The exiting coal mines in the production capacity replacement plan shall be 6closed within one month after the application for production capacity increase is approved.The improvement of the production capacity replacement policy will further optimize the structure of the coal industry and improve the efficiency.According to the estimates of relevant institutions, there are currently 3.8100 million tons of coal production capacity approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, and 2018the annual new production capacity is expected to be about 2100 million tons.

Further optimize the industrial layout  and speed up the transformation and upgrading of enterprises

    The " National Development and Reform Commission 4on March 1, clearly calls for further optimization of industrial layout, and encourages qualified enterprises to implement cross-regional and cross-border 20" issued by the 2018Notice on Dissolving Overcapacity in Key Areas of the Year Merger and reorganization of ownership.In addition, deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and industrial integration, respect the laws of the market economy and the laws of enterprise development, take enterprises as the main body, give full play to the role of the market mechanism, actively promote the mixed ownership reform of state-owned enterprises in the coal and coal power fields, and continuously improve the market competitiveness of enterprises.

    This year, coal industry mergers and acquisitions have made new progress.Guizhou Province is actively promoting the merger and reorganization of coal enterprises in the province, and has established a leading organization.The Chongqing municipal government cancelled the second-level corporate legal person of the coal group, laying the foundation for merger and reorganization.Sun Shouren, deputy secretary-general of the China Coal Industry Association and director of the Industry Coordination Department, said that the main idea of ​​coal industry mergers and reorganizations is to adhere to the market as the leading role, the enterprise as the main body, and the local government to strongly support, guide and create conditions.Adhere to strengthening, excellence, and expansion of the main business, and integrate development with the upstream and downstream industries of coal.Adhere to continuously improve the industrial concentration and optimize the industrial layout.

    In the downturn of the industry, coal enterprises are more willing to take the road of transformation and upgrading.However, when the economy picks up and demand rises, the structural contradictions existing in the coal industry are covered up to some extent, and the willingness to transform and upgrade the industry is not strong.Wu Lixin said: "For coal enterprises located in old industrial bases, transformation is not a question of whether or not to transform, but a question of how to transform and how to transform. The transformation and upgrading of modern coal enterprises located in new areas is to seize the In the current market situation, continue to improve profitability, take advantage of the situation to expand market share, and occupy the commanding heights of the industry."

    In the second half of the year, the focus of the transformation of the coal industry is to transform the development mode of the coal industry, and accelerate the transformation to innovation-driven, clean and low-carbon transformation, service-oriented transformation, and connotation-intensive transformation.The focus of upgrading is to optimize and upgrade the industrial structure, technical structure, product structure, organizational structure, layout structure, capital structure, and talent structure of the coal industry, so as to realize the transformation from the traditional industrialization path to the new industrialization path.For a period of time in the future, coal will remain the main energy source in my country.For the needs of national energy security, national economic development, social stability and enterprise survival, it is imperative to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the coal industry.

Source : CLP News Network